⁂ Concepts · Cause · No. 26
Causation

Nine considerations, none of them sufficient, and decisions that could not wait.

Causation

The relation by which one thing brings about another - used constantly and never satisfactorily analysed.

Theme
Cause, time and change
Tradition
Cross-tradition
Term fixed
c. 330 BC

In plain terms

One billiard ball strikes another and the second moves. Everyone knows the first caused the second, and nobody can say what that means.

Hume looked for the connection and found three things: the balls touched, one moved before the other, and this always happens. He could not find the necessity - the making-it-happen - anywhere in the scene, and concluded that the idea comes from our habit of expectation rather than from anything observed.

That is an uncomfortable result, because causation is doing enormous work everywhere. Medicine, law, engineering and history all turn on it, and each has had to develop its own criteria for deciding when it holds, because philosophy has not supplied one they can use.

As a philosopher would put it

Aristotle's four aitiai - material, formal, efficient and final - answer four different why-questions, and only the efficient corresponds to the modern notion, which is why translating them as causes misleads.

Hume's analysis reduces causation to contiguity, priority and constant conjunction, with necessity supplied by the mind's habit. The modern successors divide sharply. Regularity theories develop the Humean line, with Mackie's INUS conditions handling complex causes. Counterfactual theories, principally Lewis's, define causation by what would have happened otherwise, which handles single cases well and struggles with overdetermination and pre-emption. Probabilistic theories make causes raise the probability of effects. Interventionist theories, following Woodward and Pearl, define a cause as something that would change the effect if manipulated, which fits experimental practice closely.

The Indian traditions divide over whether the effect pre-exists in the cause - Sāṃkhya's satkāryavāda against Nyāya's denial - which is a question the European debate never quite poses.

Where you meet it

By 1960 the association between smoking and lung cancer was overwhelming and the inference to causation was contested, including by statisticians of the first rank. Randomised trials were impossible.

In 1965 Austin Bradford Hill set out nine considerations for judging whether an association is causal: strength, consistency, specificity, temporality, biological gradient, plausibility, coherence, experiment and analogy. He was explicit that they are not a checklist and that none is necessary or sufficient - temporality apart.

The criteria have been used ever since across epidemiology, occupational health and environmental regulation, and the tobacco industry's response was to attack them one at a time.

What the episode shows is a discipline building working criteria for a relation that philosophy had declared unanalysable, under conditions where nothing could be manipulated and decisions had to be made anyway. The criteria are not a theory of causation. They are what practice produces when it cannot wait for one.

What is actually disputed

Whether causation is one thing.

Each theory handles some cases and fails on others. Regularity accounts cannot distinguish causes from correlated effects of a common cause; counterfactual accounts stumble on overdetermination, where two sufficient causes occur; probabilistic accounts face cases where a cause lowers the probability of its effect.

Pluralists conclude that the word covers several relations - production, dependence, manipulability - and that the search for a single analysis was misconceived.

Russell's more radical position is that fundamental physics contains no causal notion at all, only functional relations between states, and that causation is a folk category that survives because it is useful at human scale. Cartwright's reply is that science is full of causal talk precisely because it is doing something laws cannot - and that the physics does not have the authority to abolish a concept every applied discipline requires.

Commonly confused with

  • Explanation 1948 Explaining why something happened often cites a cause and need not. Mathematical and structural explanations cite no causes at all.
  • Responsibility c. 340 BC Being the cause of a harm is not being answerable for it. A falling branch causes an injury and answers to nobody.
  • Determinism 1677 Determinism is a thesis about whether all events are fixed by prior states. Causation is a relation between particular events, and one can hold either without the other.

Defined against

  • Chance Whether an event has a cause or occurs without one is the oldest question about the pair, and quantum mechanics has made it live again

Philosophers

  • Aristotle The four kinds of because
  • David Hume The argument that no necessary connection is observed
  • Immanuel Kant Causation as a category the understanding imposes on experience
  • Al-Ghazali The occasionalist denial of necessary connection in nature
  • Nagarjuna The argument that production from self, other, both or neither all fail
  • Kapila The doctrine that the effect pre-exists in its cause

Works

Schools

Related concepts

Aristotle's four aitiai are four kinds of because rather than four causes in the modern sense; Hume's argument that no necessary connection is observable is what turned causation into a problem.